Monday, March 19, 2012

My Draft 2012

Yesterday was the fantasy baseball draft in our 5x5 keeper league. It was over six hours of fun that included  plenty of jokes, adult beverages and baseball strategy. After finishing second last year the bulk of my team remained intact and I went in with a little more available funds but also had a few more spots to replace. Last year I went in with $41 and eight roster spots to fill out of a possible 50 including 10 for farm eligible. This year I went in with $53 to spend but ideally had to spread that over 12 new players. Also similar to last year there were a few teams that scrapped their teams and nearly started from scratch with the majority of the possible $300 available to them.


One decision that I changed a few times before the draft was how I planned to allocate the 12 available spots. Initially I planned on splitting it evenly between pitchers and position players. Then I pushed the edge to seven position players and five pitchers. Finally I decided to stick to the traditional view that position players are more valuable than pitchers so I planned on nine position players and three pitchers. Of course that was subject to change depending on how things went draft day.


I knew that I wasn't going to be able to get top dollar talent so I gathered the names of players I thought I had a chance at. On draft day I went into the draft with three columns on a piece of paper: pitchers, position players and bait. The bait players were either players I knew I had no chance at or players I didn't want but were on team rosters the previous year at prices I knew the others would be willing to bid for.


The first round went as expected and the bidding wars ensued for the big names like Albert Pujols $38, Adrian Gonzalez $34, Justin Verland $35, Robinson Cano $33, Joey Votto $35, Ryan Zimmerman $27 and Ian Kinsler $34. A few odd first round offerings were Mariano Rivera $15, Alex Gordon $21, Erick Aybar $21 and Alex Rios $14. The big curve ball of the round was prospect Matt Adams being thrown out at the third position. Adams was a player I had on my list so I put a cursory counter bid at $2 but quickly called off the chase and he went for $4. Votto was the player I threw out after having him on my roster the past few seasons but he was a bait player because I knew I had no realistic chance at him. It is always nice to see the players that initially cut their teeth on my roster leave the nest for high prices.


In the second round Dan Haren was thrown out and he happened to be at the top of my pitcher list. Yet I hoped his name wouldn't be thrown out until the later rounds because I knew the price would be too much this soon. My cap was $15 for Haren and it quickly went past that before stopping at $25. I had the same cap set for Ricky Romero who was thrown out in the fourth round and he fell out of my reach at $18. The players I threw out in the second, third, fourth and fifth rounds were Carl Crawford $26, Alex Rodriguez $21, Yoenis Cespedes $14 and Yadier Molina $9.


Then at the end of the fifth round I was surprised to hear the name Mike Moustakas thrown out because I thought he had been kept on another roster. I happily jumped at the chance and figured If I had been willing to go to $15 for Haren and Romero I would do the same for Moustakas. I needed a third baseman and was happy to land him at $12. One thing I like about Moustakas is that he has shown the ability to hit home runs by the 36 he hit in 2010 in the minors. He also showed promise in his post All Star game split after being called up by hitting .276/.314/.398 with four home runs and 26 RBI in 64 games. He has shown that it takes him some time to adjust to a new level but once he does he hits well.


In the sixth round I threw out Nyjer Morgan $6 and then heard the name of the player at the top of my position list. Eduardo Nunez is a back up at third and shortstop with the Yankees but should see plenty of time doing both. I placed my last bid at $5 and didn't want to go any higher because of the other players I wanted. I lost him at $6.


In the seventh round I threw out Ryan Raburn $6 and bid on Francisco Liriano but called off that chase and he went for $8. In the eighth round I threw out Mitch Moreland $5 and bid on Anthony Rizzo and bit my tongue as he went for $4. In the ninth round I threw out Rajai Davis $3.


In the ninth round I also picked up my first two pitchers. Joe Wieland of the Padres organization was thrown out and although he was further down on the list of pitchers I wanted I threw out a bid of $2 and got him for that. This was almost an example of putting your money where your mouth is because I had written about Wieland last year and might as well pick up a player I believed in. In 2011 between the Rangers and Padres minor league teams he was 13-4 while always maintaining a sub 3.00 ERA. He should be helped going to the Padre's pitchers park.


The other ninth round pitcher I got was Bud Norris for $9. Although he plays on a weak Houston team Norris brings the ability to strike people out as his big asset. His first half in 2011 was much better than his post All Star break performance but he continues to show improvement each year. He is entering his prime at 27 and could be ready for a break out year.


Then in the tenth round I found myself in a quandary. I threw out Chris Davis from my bait list and as "$2 going once" was called out I found myself countering with $3 because I couldn't see him going that low. I picked him up at $3 and might have backed into a steal. Davis showed promise in 2009 hitting 21 home runs in 113 games with the Rangers. Last season he hit .372 with 24 home runs in the minors for both the Rangers and Orioles organizations. Right now Davis is tabbed as the Orioles starting first baseman. While not the hitters ball park that Arlington is the stadium in Baltimore is still in the top 12 in allowing both runs and home runs.


In the 11th round I threw out Marlon Byrd $5 and in the 12th round I was down to the last player on my bait list. I threw out Victor Martinez and there were some rumblings from those that didn't realize he was available and others who didn't want to waste a pick on an injured player who wouldn't play this year. He went for $6.


The 13th round came and it was time to start filling out my roster. Early in the round pitcher Trevor Bauer was thrown out and I quickly countered and countered again. Some one said it was apparent who I had been waiting for. He was the highest pitcher I had remaining on my list because he had been third behind Haren and Romero. I don't follow the prices the books try to set and decided that $10 was my limit for Bauer. He was mine at $7. Three things I like about Bauer are his work ethic, strikeout ability and control.   While at UCLA last year he had 203 strikeouts against only 36 walks in 136.2 innings. He will start the season on my farm team until he shows he can compete in the big leagues.


The 13th round also marked the point where I started throwing out players from my real draft list. I would throw out position players first and if that happened to be become exhausted then I would head into the pitchers list although I already hit the three pitcher mark. First I threw out Eric Sogard and got him for $1.  Sogard is a utility player with the Athletics whose default position is short stop and he also plays second and third. Besides offering position depth Sogard showed the ability in the minors to hit around .300 and reach double digits in home runs and steals. The Athletics saw he could hit when they drafted him in the second round in 2007 after he hit .400 and helped Arizona State get to the College World Series.


In the 14th round I drafted Kyle Seagar for $1. He is currently a back up at second and third but is challenging for the starting spot at third.  Seagar showed his promise in 2010 hitting .345/.419/.503 with 14 home runs and 13 steals in 135 games at Class A Advanced. He followed that up in 2011 by hitting .333/.399/.495 with seven home runs and 11 steals in 90 games across Double A and Triple A before being promoted to the Mariners for 53 games and hit .253/.312/.379 with three home runs and three steals. The Mariners drafted him in the third round in 2009 after he hit .393/.487/.592 with six home runs and 13 steals to help North Carolina to the College World Series.


The 15th round met my first challenge from others in these later rounds as I threw out Eric Young Jr. I've held him at various times the last couple seasons but didn't keep him on the roster in hopes I could pick him up cheaper. Yet he is known as a source for stolen bases. I set my cap on him at $5 and was able to get him back at that. At least that guarantees I have him this season and next while I hope he develops into the player I know he can be. As a back up in the outfield and at second he managed 27 steals in only 229 plate appearances over 77 games in 2011. He started to show the ability to hit at Triple A last year with .363/.454/.552 but he needs the chance prove he can do that in the Majors. Hopefully he can be traded else where and be given that opportunity.


Near top of the 16th round Gary Brown was thrown out and I had high hopes for him but called off the chase at $6 and he went for $7. The Giants outfield prospect did put up some crazy numbers in 2011 hitting .336/.407/.519 with 14 home runs and 53 steals in 131 games at Class A Advanced. Yet he wasn't one of those players I felt I had to have at any cost so I threw out Padres outfield prospect Rymer Liriano and got him at $1 instead. In 2011 at Class A Liriano hit .319/.383/.499 with 12 home runs and 65 steals 116 games.


The 17th round was when I picked up the first of three players I felt I just had to have. I threw out Angels first base prospect C. J Cron for $1 and got him for that. One thing that I've always liked about Cron is that he is the only player to have gotten three hits off Stephen Strasburg in a college game.
The Angels drafted him in the first round in 2011 after he hit .434/.517/.803 with 15 home runs in 49 games and he tore through Rookie ball hitting .308/.371/.629 with 13 home runs in 34 games before a dislocated knee cap ended his season.


In the 18th round I picked up Red Sox outfield prospect Bryce Brentz for $1. In 2011 he hit .359/.414/.647 with 11 home runs in 40 games at Class A and hit .274/.336/.531 with 19 home runs in 75 gamess at Class A Advanced. The ability to hit 30 home runs in a season no matter the level is a big positive for me. The Red Sox drafted Brentz late in the first round in 2010 after hitting .348/.440/.636 with 15 home runs in 46 games. In 2009 he led the nation as a sophomore hitting .465/.535/.930 with 28 home runs in 60 games.


My final player selected was Carlos Correa for $1. He keeps in line with my tradition of drafting a player that will likely be drafted in the next MLB draft. The last two I took were Bryce Harper and Bubba Starling. A couple other teams have followed my lead on this but they have stayed with college players. As with Starling last year Correa is a high school player. He plays shortstop at the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy and is reported to be a five tool player. While currently committed to play for the University of Miami a top 10 draft position at the MLB draft should change that. I'll have to wait until next June to see where he is drafted and next July what his final decision is.


That concludes by 2012 draft report and I can't wait for the season to start.









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