Anthony Rendon of Rice was the odds on favorite to be the first overall draft pick in the 2011 MLB draft based on his 2010 season. Then in July while playing for Team USA he suffered a severe injury to his right ankle when his right foot was caught under him in a rundown while playing South Korea. His ankle and foot had several fractures and the ankle was also dislocated. It was the same ankle that had to be surgically repaired when he injured it in the 2009 Super Regional but returned to play the entire next season. The initial question was how well would Rendon perform after the second injury and would it affect his draft status?
Comparing this season to his stellar 2010 campaign there does appear to be a drop off in production. His batting average is down over 40 points from .394 in 63 games in 2010 to .348 through 41 games this season. The decline in his home run and slugging percentage numbers are glaring with 26 home runs and .801 in 2010 and only 3 home runs and .530 so far this year. He appears to still have a good eye with 59 walks and 21 strikeouts so far this season compared to 65 walks and 22 strikeouts in 2010. Rendon has spent the majority of this season at DH to lessen his time on the ankle. Just looking at these stats in would appear that the injury has affected his production.
Another important factor to consider is that the NCAA again changed the specs on the bats with the goal to make them similar to wood bats. Some claimed that the change would reduce the flight of the ball 20 to 25 feet but many others believe the new bats have deadened the ball too much and there is no longer a sweet spot on the bat. If it would just be a matter of distance affected I would expect a drop in home runs but an increase in doubles. With Rendon the home runs have obviously dropped off to the extreme but the doubles have only increased slightly. In 2010 he hit 12 while he has hit 11 through two-thirds of this season.
Another way to gauge the drop in production would be a comparison to some of Rendon's fellow home run leaders from last year. Dan Paolini of Siena batted .368 with 26 home runs, 13 doubles and a .816 slugging percentage in 52 games in 2010 compared to hitting .353 with 13 home runs, seven doubles and a .691 slugging percentage through 37 games this season. Alex Dickerson of Indiana batted .419 with 24 home runs, 19 doubles and a .805 slugging percentage in 55 games in 2010 compared to hitting .364 with five home runs, six doubles and a .510 slugging percentage through 36 games this season. Jordan Ribera of Fresno State batted .343 with 27 home runs, 20 doubles and a .761 slugging percentage in 2010 compared to hitting .205 with two home runs, 11 doubles and a slugging percentage of .368 through 31 games this season. CJ Cron of Utah batted .431 with 20 home runs, 16 doubles and a slugging percentage of .817 in 49 games in 2010 compared to hitting .470 with eight home runs, 14 doubles and a slugging percentage .795 through 29 games this season. The numbers for all the leaders from last season are down although some are having more trouble adjusting to the new bats than others.
The Scenic West Athletic Conference is a JUCO league that uses wood bats and the home runs leaders in that conference are similar to the drop seen by the hitters above. One player has seven and two others have hit six home runs. Of course you would expect the best players in Division I to put up better numbers than JUCO players. A few players seem to like the new bats with Victor Roache of Georgia Southern, Jake Lowery of James Madison, Brandon Miller of Samford, and Casey Kalenkosky of Texas State topping the Division I home run leader board with 18, 17, 15 and 14 home runs respectively. It also highlights how the 31 home runs put up by Bryce Harper last year in the SWAC were so impressive.
It would appear that the new bats may be affecting Rendon more than the injury. He still has about twenty games to add to his totals and finish the season strong. In two months we'll see what conclusions the MLB scouts and executives reach by where Rendon lands in the draft. I predict he will fall out of that top spot.
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